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Crafting a new policy toward Iran is a complicated, uncertain, and perilous challenge. Since it is an extremely complex society, with an opaque political system, it is no wonder that the United States has not yet figured out the puzzle that is Iran. With the clock ticking on Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities, solving this puzzle is more urgent than ever.
In Which Path to Persia? a group of experts with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings lays out the courses of action available to the United States. What are the benefits and drawbacks of airstrikes? Can engagement be successful? Is regime change possible? In answering such questions, the authors do not argue for one approach over another. Instead, they present the details of the policies so that readers can understand the complexity of the challenge and decide for themselves which course the United States should take.
Pollack (A Path Out of the Desert), research director for the Saban Center, collaborates with five colleagues for this timely and cogent analysis of U.S.-Iranian relations. Dismissing past U.S. policy as “not particularly impressive,” the authors point to “an emerging consensus... that the Obama administration will have to adopt a new policy toward Iran.” To that end, they identify nine approaches ranging from diplomacy to military action and containment (“the default U.S. policy toward Iran since the Islamic Revolution”) and lay out the objectives, costs, pros and cons for each. Avoiding advocacy, the authors lament that all the alternatives are “unpalatable” and “no course is unambiguously better” than the others. They further acknowledge that Iran's nuclear ambitions represent an “existential threat” to Israel and that Israel remains a “wild card” in any consideration of Iranian policy. U.S.-Iranian relations have long been a minefield, and Pollack and his collaborators carefully identify the potential missteps facing policymakers in this valuable—if wonky—primer. (Sept.)
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