Russian Oil Supply: Performance and Prospects by John D. Grace

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Synopsis

Russian Oil Supply traces the development of the Russian oil industry from its inception in the 1870s through the present. The fundamental geology of the two main producing basins (Volga-Ural and West Siberia) is presented along with a review of key production technologies. The technical, economic, and policy aspects of achieving the 1987-88 peak production are described as well as the mechanics of the production collapse that followed and, since 1999, the recovery of Russian output. The performance of Russia's major oil companies, independents and joint ventures is analyzed and conclusions drawn on the future course of production and exports.

This is not bedtime reading, but it is entirely accessible to the non-specialist. And it provides the most measured and comprehensive assessment available of Russia's near- to medium- term potential as an oil supplier. If Russia's status as an international actor increasingly involves oil, here is a very good place to begin understanding it. --Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

Russia, as Grace notes, is an "ally and opponent" of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the same for oil consumers — in other words, it is a "fulcrum." Grace, a professional geologist and industry specialist, probes in depth how large and effective a fulcrum it is likely to be over the next 15 years. Because he believes that past practices directly impinge on present prospects, he takes the story back to the opening of the Russian oil industry in the late nineteenth century and then up through the development of the Volga-Ural basin, western Siberia, and, now, new regions. This is not bedtime reading, but it is entirely accessible to the nonspecialist. And it provides the most measured and comprehensive assessment available of Russia's near- to medium-term potential as an oil supplier. Grace builds his case first from a best-practice appraisal of the oil in the ground and then considers the industry's capacity to recover it, all in the context of how the state under Putin is bent on exploiting the golden goose. If Russia's status as an international actor increasingly involves oil, here is a very good place to begin understanding it.

Biography

After completing his Ph.D. in Economics at Louisiana State University in 1984, John D. Grace served one year as an Assistant Professor of Geology at LSU. In 1985, he joined the Geologic Department of the Research and Development lab of Atlantic Richfield (ARCO, now a part of British Petroleum). In
1990, he transferred to the headquarters' Corporate Planning department with responsibility for North American natural gas market analysis.
In 1991, Dr. Grace left ARCO to form a joint-venture consulting firm with several Russian and US colleagues to offer advisory services to oil and gas firms seeking investment opportunities in the Former Soviet Union. At the same time, he founded Earth Science Associates, which specializes in hydrocarbon resource assessment, oil and gas supply analysis and the development of geographic information system (GIS) technologies for exploration and production companies.