Table of Contents
Acknowledgments xiii
How Elections Rule American Politics 3
Bush versus Gore, September 11, and American Elections 3
Actors and Institutions 5
Election Games 8
The Plan of the Book 9
The Message of the Book 12
A Note to the Reader 13
Fundamentals 17
Understanding Turnout 19
Three Things 19
Three Puzzles 21
Consumption versus Investment 28
Togetherness: The Group Investment Benefits of Voting 29
Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux 33
Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally 41
The Forty-Five-Year Lag Revisited 45
The Final Puzzle-Why Did Turnout Decline in the 1970s? 50
What We Know 55
What We Don't Know: Why Turnout Rebounded in 2004 56
Study Questions and Problems 56
Appendix to Chapter 2 57
Trends in Voter Mobilization 62
Mobilization Strategies in the 2004 Election 62
The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions 71
Making Voting Cheap and Easy 74
Financing Turnout 84
What We Know 85
What We Don't Know: Candidates and Parties 86
Study Questions and Problems 86
Candidates, Primaries, and Ideological Divergence 90
Brothers in Office 90
Why Moderation Attracts in U.S. Elections 91
Moderation: Virtue or Vice? 96
A Battle for the Left 101
How Parties Affect Candidates' Positions 102
Uncertainty and Extremism 108
Variations in Primary Systems 113
Opening Primaries and Party Control 116
Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence 120
What We Know 124
What We Don't Know: Red States versus Blue States 124
Study Questions and Problems 125
Polarized over Policy or Voting on Valence? 128
A War between the States? 128
The Arguments behind the Polarized View: A Closer Look 137
Income Inequality, Immigration, and Polarization 170
Do Voters Base Choices on Issues or Abilities? 172
What We Know 178
What We Don't Know: What Money Does 178
Study Questions and Problems 179
Money and the Mass Media 183
How Campaigns Are Financed 185
The Desperate Man 185
Who Makes Contributions? 187
Federal Campaign Finance Regulations 190
Giving to Elect or to Receive? 197
Giving to Elect 199
Giving to Receive 202
Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions 207
Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money 209
Policy versus Service Redux 212
What We Know 213
What We Don't Know: Opening Up the Black Box 213
Study Questions and Problems 214
How Campaign Money Affects Voters 217
Inside the Black Box: Indirect Influences 217
Inside the Black Box: Direct Influences 221
Empirical Evidence on Campaign Advertising 231
What We Know 242
What We Don't Know: Other Sources of Information 243
Study Questions and Problems 243
The Mass Media and Voters' Information 247
Candidate Information and the Media 247
A Biased Information Source? 250
The Sources and Effects of Media Bias 258
What We Know 281
What We Don't Know: A Referendum on Whom? 282
Study Questions and Problems 283
The Problems of Incomplete Information in Elections 289
Controlling the Behavior of Elected Officials 291
William Goodling's Unusual Election 291
A Return to Citizen Legislators 292
The Secret World of Incumbents 292
What the Voters May Not Know about Incumbents 294
Controlling Incumbents by Getting Information 299
Controlling Elected Officials on the Basis of Little Information 301
Empirical Evidence 304
Retrospective Voting and the Economy 306
Retrospective Voting and Parties 310
Should Incumbency Be Limited? 312
The Puzzle of the Increase in Term Limits 316
Voters' Changing the Electoral Calendar 317
Referenda and Initiatives 321
Elected versus Appointed Officials 323
What We Know 326
What We Don't Know: What Voters Want 327
Study Questions and Problems 328
Measuring Public Opinion 332
Psephology Failures 332
Public Opinion Polls and Elections 334
Show Me the Money 347
Election Night and Projecting Winners 353
Forecasting Elections before Campaigns Begin 368
What Do We Learn about Elections from Psephology Failures? 374
Do Elected Officials Read Polls? 374
Retrospective Voting and Public Opinion Polls 377
What Do Public Opinion Polls Tell Elected Officials? 381
What We Know 386
What We Don't Know: Other Reasons Why Goodling's Election Was Special 387
Study Questions and Problems 388
Federal Elections 395
Congressional Elections 397
Trying to Make a Difference 397
Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives 398
Redistricting 402
Gerrymandering 407
Does Gerrymandering Give Incumbents an Advantage? 423
The Decision to Run 426
Senate Elections 436
Are Congressional Races Special? 438
Not All Members Are Equal 439
Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency 441
Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility 444
What We Know 446
What We Don't Know: Moving Down the Street 446
Study Questions and Problems 447
Presidential Primaries 452
Skipping Around or Sitting in Place? 452
What It Takes to Get on the Ballot in the Primaries 453
Hyperspeed 455
What It Takes to Get Nominated 458
How the Current System Works 471
How the Current System Works: The Evidence 484
Views of the State of Primaries 487
What We Know 489
What We Don't Know: The Next Step 489
Study Questions and Problems 490
Presidential Elections 494
Going West 494
How the Electoral College Works 495
The Electoral College and Campaigning 499
The Electoral Vote and Government Spending 513
Voters and Divided Government 515
What Happened to the Patient's Bill of Rights? 534
More Checks and Balances 535
What We Know 537
What We Don't Know: Other Parties and Candidates 538
Study Questions and Problems 538
Challenging the Majority 543
Minor Parties and Independent Candidates 545
Winning by Division 545
Voters' Choices in Three-Candidate Elections 546
Choosing Whether to Party 550
Moving to More Than One Dimension 552
Can Minor-Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in U.S. Elections? 557
How Influential Are Minor-Party and Independent Candidates? 562
Do Voters Vote Strategically? 568
Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices 573
Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination 574
Not Unique but Rare... 579
The Implications for Policy Choices 580
How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt the Democrats in 2000 584
What We Know 585
What We Don't Know: The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights 586
Study Questions and Problems 588
Minority Voters and Representation 592
The Dilemma of Representation 592
What It Was Like 594
The South Today 595
The Current Rise in Diversity 599
Defining Minority Representation 600
Vote Denial 602
Vote Dilution 608
Vote Dilution, the Fifteenth Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act 616
Majority-Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s 618
Majority-Minority Districts and Other Minorities 621
Are Majority-Minority Districts Good for Minorities? 625
The Future of Redistricting 632
Vote Denial Today 634
What We Know 637
Study Questions and Problems 637
The Future and Analyzing Elections 641
The 2008 Presidential Contest 641
The Message and What We Know Redux 642
References 645
Index 673
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