Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2008-2009: with a Special Section on Energy and Sustainability by Donald Kennedy (Editor), the Editors of Science (Editor), John Holdren (Contribution by), Janez Potocnik (Contribution by), Daniel Cleary (Contribution by)

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction Donald Kennedy 1

Energy Solutions

Introductions Donald Kennedy 5

The Energy-Economy-Environment Dilemma John P. Holdren 8

Renewable Energy Sources and the Realities of Settings at Energy Agenda Janez Potocnik 16

Ethanol for a Sustainable Energy future Jose Goldemberc 21

The Billion-Ton Biofuels-Vision Chris Somerville 28

The Biofuels Conundrum Donald Kennedy 31

Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass David Tilman Jason Hill Clarence LEHMAN 33

Commentary: Carbon-Negative Biofuels form Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass" Michael P. Russelle R. Vance Morey John M. Baker Paul M. Porter Hans-Joachim G. Jung 40

Response to Commentary: "Carbon Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass" David Tilman Jason Hill Clarence Lehman 43

Can the Upstarts Top Silicon? Robert F. Service 47

What's Already Happened?

Introduction Donald Kennedy 57

Warming and Earlier Spring Increaser Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity A.L. Westerling H. G. Hidalgo D. R. Cayan T.W. Swetnam 63

How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring? Frank J. Wentz Lucrezia Ricciardull Kyle Hilburn Carl Mears 74

Running Out of Water and Time John Bohannon 82

Rapid Advance of Spring Arrival Dates in Long-Distance Migratory Birds Niclas Jonzen Anderas Linden Torbjorn Ergon Endre Knudsen Jon Olva Vik Diergo Rubolini Dario Piacentini Christian Brinch Fernando Spina Lennart Karlsson Matin Stervander Arne Andersson Jonas Waldenstrom Aleksi Lehikoinen Erik Edvardsen Rune Solvang Nils Chr. Stenseth 88

Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover Mark C. Serreze Marika M. Holland Julienne Stroeve93

Recent Sea Level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets Andrew Shepherd Duncan Wingham 103

projecting The Future

Intruduction Donald Kennedy 115

IPCC Report Lays Out Options for Taming Greenhouse Gases John Bohannon Eli Kintisch 119

The Limits of Consensus Michael Oppenheimer Brian C. o'Neill Mort Webster Shardul Agrawala 123

Commentary: A Closer Look at the Ipcc Report Susan Solomon Richard Alley Jonathan Gregory Peter Lemke Martin Manning 128

Response to Commentary: A Closer Look at the IPCC Report Michael Oppenheimer Brain O'Neill Mort Webster Shardul Agrawala 130

Simulating Arctic Climate Warmth and Ice Fields Retreat in the Interglaciation Bette L. Otto -Bliesner Shawn J. Marshall Jonathan T. Overpeck Gifford H. Miller Aixue Hu Cape Last Interglacial Project Members 132

A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea Level Rise Stefan Rahmstorf 140

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030 David B. Lobell Marshall B. Burke Claudia Tebaldi Michael D Mastrandrea Walter P. Falcon Rosamond L. Naylor 146

Critical Assumptions in the Stern Review on Climate Change William Nordhaus 155

Climate Change: Risk, Ethics, and the Stern Review Nicholas Stern Chris Taylor 161

Dealing With Climate Change

Introduction Donald Kennedy 169

A Combined Mitigation-Geoengincering Approach to Climate Stabilization T.M. L. Wigley 173

Preparing to Capture Carbon Daniel P. Schrac 180

A Guide to Co2 Sequestration Klaus S. Lackner 186

Carbon Trading William H. Schlesincer 191

Carbon Trading Over Taxes William Chameides Michael Oppenheimer 193

Index 197