The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing by Ian Bremmer, Preston Keat

Synopsis

In recent years, investors have learned the hard truth that in the international economy, politics often matters at least as much as economic fundamentals for the performance of global markets. Too many companies and investors haven't yet learned to read the warning signs: their expertise lies much more in economics than politics, and the temptation is to hope that highly volatile situations such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation will be few and far between. But as Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat demonstrate, these scenarios—and their catastrophic effects on business—happen much more frequently than we imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the 'tail' of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat.

This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a widearray of political risks—risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works—and when it does not.

Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve) and Preston Keat, the president and research director (respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk consultancy firm, The Fat Tail is an indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy.

Publishers Weekly

Bremmer and Keat, executives at Eurasia Group, explore how global political risks influence the business world in this cogently argued analysis. The book details key areas corporations must be wary of in order to survive in the new global economy including foreign laws and regulation, government changes, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism and war. With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for such political developments may make or break a company. It's the difference between Morgan Stanley and the Bank of New York in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Both companies had large offices in or near the twin towers. Morgan Stanley had an emergency plan and the Bank of New York didn't; one suffered minor disruption and the other suffered extreme loss of business momentum. These persuasive case studies want for a clearer summary of how to actually implement plans that fortify companies in such situations. This is not a field guide but a sketch of the landscape, not a consulting session but an overview. It remains for the individual or corporation to take the initiative to further pursue the assessments needed to mitigate any risk. (Mar.)

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Biography

Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest.

Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. For more information, please visit www.fattailbook.com.

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