The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street by Justin Fox

From the Publisher

Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox's The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today. It's a tale that features professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a tale of Wall Street's evolution, the power of the market to generate wealth and wreak havoc, and free market capitalism's war with itself.

The efficient market hypothesis—long part of academic folklore but codified in the 1960s at the University of Chicago—has evolved into a powerful myth. It has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds and vast new derivatives markets, and the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, and that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all acting on information to outsmart one another, always provide the best judge of a stock's value. That myth is crumbling.

Celebrated journalist and columnist Fox introduces a new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Many of them now agree with Yale professor Robert Shiller that the efficient markets theory “represents one ofthe most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought.” Today the theory has given way to counterintuitive hypotheses about human behavior, psychological models of decision making, and the irrationality of the markets. Investors overreact, underreact, and make irrational decisions based on imperfect data. In his landmark treatment of the history of the world's markets, Fox uncovers the new ideas that may come to drive the market in the century ahead.

The New York Times - Paul Krugman

Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do—because this one is different. Instead of focusing on the errors and abuses of the bankers, Fox…tells the story of the professors who enabled those abuses under the banner of the financial theory known as the efficient-market hypothesis. Fox's book is not an idle exercise in intellectual history, which makes it a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we're in.

The Washington Post - Roger Lowenstein

Fox…spins a fascinating historical narrative, beginning with economist Irving Fisher's paean to markets in, alas, 1929.

Publishers Weekly

At the core of the current financial crisis has been the widely held assumption that markets behave rationally. Fox, Time magazine editor-at-large, isn't the first to bring scrutiny-or censure-to the conceit, but his analysis is singularly compelling, and the rare business history that reads like a thriller. Fox leads us on a chronological journey of modern economic theory, featuring the cast of scholars who constructed the 20th- and 21st-century financial landscape, from Irving Fisher to such post-WWII figures as Milton Friedman, Harry Markowitz, Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller, Jack Treynor and William Sharpe. Fox offers a behind-the-scenes glimpse at academia's finest, complete with amusing anecdotes about the players and their theories, and illustrates how our economic behaviors and markets have been shaped by a gradually refined theory holding that the stock market prices are both random and perfectly rational. A must-read for anyone interested in the markets, our economy or government, this dense but spellbinding work brings modern finance and economics to life. (July)Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robbie Allen - Library Journal

Fox, a Time editor at large and economics columnist, here takes readers through the history of academic research on financial markets since the late 19th century. He focuses on the development of the Efficient Market Theory and its fall from dominance, which resulted largely from the rise of behavioral finance. The Efficient Market Theory uses mathematical models to show that investors act on information as it becomes available, making pricing so efficient that an investor would be unable to beat the market without insider information. Fox argues convincingly that this theory has been eclipsed by behavioral finance, which studies investors' psychology to show that markets are not as rational as the Efficient Market Theory presents. The style here is journalistic, with personal stories that make the book entertaining, but ultimately this is a history of academic thought-complete with endnotes-and is best suited for students of finance or people interested in financial theory.

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