Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone

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(Paperback)

  • Pub. Date: September 2006
  • 400pp
  • Sales Rank: 27,797

    Reader Rating: (4 ratings)

    Detailed Rating: "General Readers" See All

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    Product Details

    • Pub. Date: September 2006
    • Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
    • Format: Paperback, 400pp
    • Sales Rank: 27,797

    Synopsis

    In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein’s. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible.

    Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the “Kelly formula” to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenonally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett’s rate of return. Fortune’s Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversyeven as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and tradingdesks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which isfounded on exploiting an insider’s edge.

    Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beatthe market—and Fortune’s Formula will convince you that he was right.

    Publishers Weekly

    In 1961, MIT mathematics professor Ed Thorp made a small Vegas fortune by "counting cards"; his 1962 bestseller, Beat the Dealer, made the phrase a household word. With Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, Thorp next conquered the roulette tables. In this prosaic but fascinating cultural history, Poundstone (How Would You Move Mt. Fuji?) tells not only what they did but how they did it. For roulette, Poundstone shows, Thorp and Shannon used a betting scheme invented by Shannon's Bell Labs colleague John Kelly, eventually applying Kelly's technique to investing, resulting in long-term records of extraordinary return with low risk. (Thorp revealed the secret in 1966's Beat the Market, but investors proved harder to persuade than blackjack players.) Many other characters figure into Poundstone's entertaining saga: a forgotten French mathematician, two Nobel Prize-winning economists who declared war on the Kelly criterion, Rudy Giuliani, assorted mobsters, and winners and losers in all types of investing and gambling games. The subtitle is not a tease: the book explains and analyzes Kelly's system for turning small advantages into great wealth. The system works, but requires unusual amounts of patience, discipline and courage. The book is good fun for the rest of us. Agent, Katinka Matson at Brockman. (Sept.) Copyright 2005 Reed Business Information.

    More Reviews and Recommendations

    Biography

    William Poundstone is the bestselling author of nine nonfiction books, including Labyrinths of Reason and The Recursive Universe.

    Customer Reviews

    • Reader Rating:
    • Ratings: 4Reviews: 2

    A great fun read for anyone that ever bets or plays the marketby 8string

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    August 03, 2009: I found this book a fun fast read. It covers a group of brilliant math students and teachers from MIT and Bell Labs that changed blackjack gambling forever, and then moved onto the world of stock market hedging. The book is well written, entertaining, explains some of the technical issues well for the layman, and is worth reading for anyone that places a bet now and then, including any investments in the stock market.

    Inside Info on How the Market Got Beatby Anonymous

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    February 06, 2006: This is a fascinating book about the sociology of ideas and, specifically, about information theory. Author William Poundstone explores how Claude Shannon, the major developer of information theory, affected finance, investing and gambling. These activities seem disconnected, but they all rely on managing uncertainty. Like any great idea, information theory attracted major personalities: gamblers, mobsters, academics, economists, traders and people who just wanted to make money. The story weaves through a collection of memorable people (from seventeenth-century mathematicians to Ivan Boesky) to present pertinent mathematical and scientific theories, and to explore how people used them. At times, the connections between events seem strained, but they all come together. This book is encyclopedic, exceptionally informative, and packed with great stories and characters. We enthusiastically recommend it to anyone seriously interested in investing, the sociology of ideas, or gambling. Indeed, read it twice: once for its theories and practical investment advice, and the other to relish its personalities.