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Conjectures and Refutations is one of Karl Popper's most wide-ranging and popular works, notable not only for its acute insights into the way scientific knowledge grows, but also for applying those insights to politics and to history. It provides one of the clearest and most accessible statements of the fundamental idea that guided his work: not only our knowledge, but our aims and our standards, grow through an unending process of trial and error. Popper brilliantly demonstrates how knowledge grows by guesses or conjectures and tentative solutions, which must then be subjected to critical tests. Although they may survive any number of tests, our conjectures remain conjectures, they can never be established as true. What makes Conjectures and Refutations such an enduring book is that Popper goes on to apply this bold theory of the growth of knowledge to a fascinating range of important problems, including the role of tradition, the origin of the scientific method, the demarcation between science and metaphysics, the body-mind problem, the way we use language, how we understand history, and the dangers of public opinion. Throughout the book, Popper stresses the importance of our ability to learn from our mistakes. Conjectures and Refutations is essential reading, and a book to be returned to again and again.
Karl Popper (1902-1994). Philosopher, born in Vienna. One of the most influential and controversial thinkers of the twentieth century.
| Preface | xi | |
| Acknowledgements | xiv | |
| Preface to the Second Edition | xv | |
| Preface to the Third Edition | xvii | |
| Introduction: On the Sources of Knowledge and of Ignorance | 3 | |
| Conjectures | ||
| 1 | Science: Conjectures and Refutations | 43 |
| Appendix | Some Problems in the Philosophy of Science | 78 |
| 2 | The Nature of Philosophical Problems and their Roots in Science | 87 |
| 3 | Three Views Concerning Human Knowledge | 130 |
| 1 | The Science of Galileo and Its Most Recent Betrayal | 130 |
| 2 | The Issue at Stake | 134 |
| 3 | The First View: Ultimate Explanation by Essences | 139 |
| 4 | The Second View: Theories as Instruments | 144 |
| 5 | Criticism of the Instrumentalist View | 149 |
| 6 | The Third View: Conjectures, Truth, and Reality | 153 |
| 4 | Towards a Rational Theory of Tradition | 161 |
| 5 | Back to the Presocratics | 183 |
| Appendix | Historical Conjectures and Heraclitus on Change | 206 |
| 6 | A Note on Berkeley as Precursor of Mach and Einstein | 224 |
| 7 | Kant's Critique and Cosmology | 237 |
| 1 | Kant and the Enlightenment | 238 |
| 2 | Kant's Newtonian Cosmology | 240 |
| 3 | The Critique and the Cosmological Problem | 241 |
| 4 | Space and Time | 242 |
| 5 | Kant's Copernican Revolution | 244 |
| 6 | The Doctrine of Autonomy | 246 |
| 8 | On the Status of Science and of Metaphysics | 249 |
| 1 | Kant and the Logic of Experience | 249 |
| 2 | The Problem of the Irrefutability of Philosophical Theories | 261 |
| 9 | Why are the Calculi of Logic and Arithmetic Applicable to Reality? | 272 |
| 10 | Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge | 291 |
| 1 | The Growth of Knowledge: Theories and Problems | 291 |
| 2 | The Theory of Objective Truth: Correspondence to the Facts | 302 |
| 3 | Truth and Content: Verisimilitude versus Probability | 309 |
| 4 | Background Knowledge and Scientific Growth | 322 |
| 5 | Three Requirements for the Growth of Knowledge | 326 |
| Appendix | A Presumably False yet Formally Highly Probable Non-Empirical Statement | 336 |
| Refutations | ||
| 11 | The Demarcation Between Science and Metaphysics | 341 |
| 1 | Introduction | 342 |
| 2 | My Own View of the Problem | 344 |
| 3 | Carnap's First Theory of Meaninglessness | 349 |
| 4 | Carnap and the Language of Science | 356 |
| 5 | Testability and Meaning | 368 |
| 6 | Probability and Induction | 377 |
| 12 | Language and the Body-Mind Problem | 395 |
| 1 | Introduction | 395 |
| 2 | Four Major Functions of Language | 397 |
| 3 | A Group of Theses | 398 |
| 4 | The Machine Argument | 399 |
| 5 | The Causal Theory of Naming | 401 |
| 6 | Interaction | 402 |
| 7 | Conclusion | 402 |
| 13 | A Note on the Body-Mind Problem | 403 |
| 14 | Self-Reference and Meaning in Ordinary Language | 409 |
| 15 | What is Dialectic? | 419 |
| 1 | Dialectic Explained | 419 |
| 2 | Hegelian Dialectic | 435 |
| 3 | Dialectic After Hegel | 445 |
| 16 | Prediction and Prophecy in the Social Sciences | 452 |
| 17 | Public Opinion and Liberal Principles | 467 |
| 1 | The Myth of Public Opinion | 467 |
| 2 | The Dangers of Public Opinion | 470 |
| 3 | Liberal Principles: A Group of Theses | 471 |
| 4 | The Liberal Theory of Free Discussion | 473 |
| 5 | The Forms of Public Opinion | 475 |
| 6 | Some Practical Problems: Censorship and Monopolies of Publicity | 475 |
| 7 | A Short List of Political Illustrations | 476 |
| 8 | Summary | 476 |
| 18 | Utopia and Violence | 477 |
| 19 | The History of Our Time: An Optimist's View | 489 |
| 20 | Humanism and Reason | 506 |
| Addenda: Some Technical Notes | 517 | |
| 1 | Empirical Content | 517 |
| 2 | Probability and the Severity of Tests | 522 |
| 3 | Verisimilitude | 527 |
| 4 | Numerical Examples | 535 |
| 5 | Artificial vs. Formalized Languages | 537 |
| 6 | A Historical Note on Verisimilitude (1964) | 538 |
| 7 | Some Further Hints on Verisimilitude (1968) | 541 |
| 8 | Further Remarks on the Presocratics, especially on Parmenides (1968) | 545 |
| 9 | The Presocratics: Unity or Novelty? (1968) | 556 |
| 10 | An Argument, due to Mark Twain, against Naive Empiricism (1989) | 557 |
| Index of Mottoes | 558 | |
| Index of Names | 559 | |
| Index of Subjects | 567 |
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