Chances Are....: Adventures in Probability by Michael Kaplan, Ellen Kaplan

From Barnes & Noble

"The probable is what usually happens." Over the centuries, Aristotle's simple formulation has blossomed into an entire science of likelihood. Indeed, probability and statistics underpin every science and numerous other human activities, including economics, politics, insurance, medicine, and sports. Michael and Ellen Kaplan's Chances Are shows that we often resist the lessons of life's odds even when we know them.

From the Publisher

A layman's journey into the realm of probability-from poker to politics, weather to war, Monte Carlo to mortality

We search for certainty, but find only likelihood. All things are possible, only one thing actually happens; everything else is in the realm of probability. The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity-politics, economics, medicine, law, sports-giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence. Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability-preferring to drive, not fly; buying into market blips; smoking cigarettes; denying we will ever age.

There are some people, though-gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists-who find probability's mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. Chances Are is their story. Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide-ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like E=MC2 and The Golden Ratio but by anyone interested in the workings of fate.

The New York Times - William Grimes

The Kaplans cover a lot of ground very quickly, but they have a finely tuned sense of where the general reader is likely to lose a grip on the math, or on the complexities of an argument, and adjust accordingly. A timely example, or a well-placed quotation, relieves undue pressure on the brain, and the fast pace helps reinforce one of the book's central points, that questions of probability surround nearly every aspect of our daily lives. A strategy of "calibrated incoherence," for example, can lead to victory in a game of rock/paper/scissors, and police departments are quite interested in probabilistic algorithms that allow them to map crime patterns.

The New Yorker

This fascinating layman’s trek through probability theory, from its roots in dice games in the seventeenth century to its role in modern-day thermodynamics, tackles humanity’s innate need to seek order in even the most chaotic phenomena. The authors, a mother-and-son team, address simple problems (How many shuffles make a deck of cards truly random? At least seven) and more complex ones (Can time move backward? Yes, but it’s unlikely). They do not avoid mathematical equations, but both have backgrounds in the humanities, and their sense of whimsy—“Once you know that daisies usually have an odd number of petals, you can get anyone to love you”—allows them to draw stimulating conclusions.

Publishers Weekly

Everything is possible, yet only one thing happens": this is the essence of probability, quantifying what could happen. Filmmaker Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan (coauthor of The Art of the Infinite) trace probability back to its original conception in the 1660s (by a gambler, of course) and show how it affected not only science, which would be impossible without it, but also religion and philosophy. Many pioneers of the math that grew into statistics were trying to define the divine; the inventor of combinatorics, for example, was a medieval missionary seeking to convert Muslims by showing that any statement combining the qualities of God was true in the Christian faith. This book rigorously develops its math from first principles with a passion that would make even an amateur heady with the possibilities contained within a bell curve. The authors explore the promise of the math of probabilities through its most powerful modern applications, from determining the effectiveness of new drugs to weighing the merits of combat strategies. In all these cases, the authors place the study of probability firmly in the context of humanity's ongoing struggle to assign meaning to randomness. Never before has statistics been treated with such awe and devotion. (Mar. 27) Copyright 2006 Reed Business Information.

Product Details

• ISBN: 0641873492
  
• ISBN-13: 9780641873492
• Format: Hardcover, 336pp
• Publisher: PENGUIN GROUP (USA) KIRKWOOD -
• Pub. Date: March 2006
• Edition Description: Bargain
• Sales Rank: 31,853

• Table of Contents

Table of Contents